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[Submitted on 19 Sep 2026] Title:Comparative review of hybrid forecasting models for short-term prediction of building thermal load View a PDF of the paper titled Comparative review of hybrid forecasting models for short-term prediction of building thermal load, by Nikolaos A. Efkarpidis and 2 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:In this paper, a comparative review of different hybrid models for short-term forecasting of building thermal demand is carried out. Particularly, the assessment tackles the comparison of data-driven models enhanced with other state-of-the-art techniques. At the first step, the existing techniques reported in the literature are analysed. It is concluded that Metaheuristics or a data-driven model are used to identify the parameters of the basic model. The qualitative evaluation includes for each method the input and output features, main advantages and drawbacks. At the second step, an existing dataset of historical thermal demand from Scottish households, as well as historical weather forecasts are utilized to assess additionally the performance of existing hybrid methods. From the assessment of 13 hybrid methods, the Empirical Modal Decomposition - long short-term memory - Markov (EMD-LSTM-Markov) model can predict with the highest accuracy the day-ahead power pattern of heating and domestic hot water (DHW) demands. Though local power peaks are also accurately predicted, high power swells and spikes are underestimated. Other methods, such as Support Vector Machine - Simulated Annealing (SVM-SA) and Random Forest - Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm - LSTM (RF-ISSA-LSTM) predict a smooth pattern of heating and DHW demand profiles with rapid changes underestimating most power peaks. Comments: 27 pages, 15 tables, and 13 figures Subjects: Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) Cite as: arXiv:2610.06881 [cs.LG] (or arXiv:2610.06881v1 [cs.LG] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.06881 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Submission history From: Nikolaos Efkarpidis [view email] [v1] Sat, 19 Sep 2026 09:22:00 UTC (16,136 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled Comparative review of hybrid forecasting models for short-term prediction of building thermal load, by Nikolaos A. Efkarpidis and 2 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Additional Features Audio Summary Current browse context: cs.LG new | recent | 2026-10 Change to browse by: cs cs.AI References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar Loading... Data provided by: Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate (What is Replicate?) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) IArxiv recommender toggle IArxiv Recommender (What is IArxiv?) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs. Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)