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Show HN: Daily AI-guessed odds of an Iran peace deal, vs. oil/gas prices

The Iran peace deal probability tracker shows a 52% chance of a ceasefire or peace deal within 30 days as of May 7, 2026, up from 42% the previous day. Iran is reviewing a US proposal with a response expected Thursday, and both sides are moving toward a one-page memo. Trump balances threats of escalation with claims of progress, while markets react positively with falling oil prices.

SourceHacker News AIAuthor: BubTheBuilder
Show HN: Daily AI-guessed odds of an Iran peace deal, vs. oil/gas prices
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  • Iran peace deal probability currently 52%, rising from 42% the day prior.
  • Iran reviewing US peace proposal, expected to respond Thursday.
  • Both sides working toward a one-page memo to formalize negotiations.
  • Trump combines pressure with diplomacy, while military operations continue in the Strait of Hormuz.

Highlights and analysis are generated automatically and may contain errors. Check the original source.

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