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[Submitted on 21 Jul 2026] Title:Do small language models know what they don't know? View a PDF of the paper titled Do small language models know what they don't know?, by Prashant Mudgal View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:We explore whether entropy-based confidence signals can be leveraged to improve the accuracy of Small Language Models (SLMs) with fewer than 3 billion parameters, running entirely on consumer hardware. We evaluate seven distinct approaches, including token-level entropy early stopping, semantic entropy estimation, and uncertainty-aware routing to larger expert models, across 7 model pairs and 5 standard NLU benchmarks. Our key finding is that token-level entropy is effectively blind in SLMs: in 91% of dataset-model combinations, mean token entropy is near zero regardless of answer correctness, rendering token-based confidence signals unusable at this scale. We demonstrate that semantic entropy, computed by generating multiple samples, clustering answers by meaning, and measuring distributional uncertainty, recovers a viable confidence signal. Using semantic entropy to selectively route uncertain queries to a larger expert model yields accuracy improvements of up to +50 percentage points. Notably, cross-family routing (e.g., SmolLM 360M to Phi-3.5-mini) averages +22.0% improvement compared to +6.8% for same-family routing, revealing that expert model quality matters more than architectural compatibility. Our results suggest that the value proposition for entropy-based methods in SLMs is not computational savings but intelligent compute allocation: spending more tokens where they matter most. Comments: 9 pages, 8 figures Subjects: Computation and Language (cs.CL) Cite as: arXiv:2609.20824 [cs.CL] (or arXiv:2609.20824v1 [cs.CL] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.20824 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Submission history From: Prashant Mudgal [view email] [v1] Tue, 21 Jul 2026 18:23:46 UTC (1,451 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled Do small language models know what they don't know?, by Prashant Mudgal View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Current browse context: cs.CL new | recent | 2026-09 Change to browse by: cs References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar Loading... Data provided by: Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate (What is Replicate?) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs. Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)