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[Submitted on 15 Oct 2026] Title:CGDT-CESN: Correlation-Guided and Dynamics-Trained Clustered Echo State Network for Multivariate Time-Series Prediction View a PDF of the paper titled CGDT-CESN: Correlation-Guided and Dynamics-Trained Clustered Echo State Network for Multivariate Time-Series Prediction, by Hariharan Srinivasan and 2 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:Accurate prediction of multivariate time series requires models that simultaneously capture variable-specific dynamics and cross-variable interactions. In this work, a Correlation-Guided and Dynamics-Trained Clustered Echo State Network (CGDT-CESN) is proposed, which comprises a modular reservoir architecture with each cluster distinctly specializing in one of the variables in the multivariate time series. An innovative reservoir design is proposed in which inter-cluster connections are enabled by empirically observed correlations among variables, providing a data-driven coupling mechanism. Apart from conventional readout training, inter-cluster connection weights informed by correlations are trained, which in turn allows the reservoir to capture time-varying cross-variable dependencies without sacrificing computational efficiency and further improves forecasting accuracy. The prediction performance of CGDT-CESN is found to be superior to that of the conventional ESN when evaluated on two fundamentally different datasets: Twitter information cascade evolution and solar wind forecasting. Also, the improvement in performance is preserved across multiple prediction horizons, even when presented with a low volume of data. By unifying cluster-specific specialization with learned inter-variable coupling, CGDT-CESN offers a principled, data-driven route to multivariate time series prediction. Subjects: Machine Learning (cs.LG); Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems (nlin.AO) Cite as: arXiv:2610.22430 [cs.LG] (or arXiv:2610.22430v1 [cs.LG] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.22430 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) Submission history From: Hariharan Srinivasan [view email] [v1] Thu, 15 Oct 2026 07:32:37 UTC (2,514 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled CGDT-CESN: Correlation-Guided and Dynamics-Trained Clustered Echo State Network for Multivariate Time-Series Prediction, by Hariharan Srinivasan and 2 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Additional Features Audio Summary Current browse context: cs.LG new | recent | 2026-10 Change to browse by: cs nlin nlin.AO References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar Loading... Data provided by: Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate (What is Replicate?) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) IArxiv recommender toggle IArxiv Recommender (What is IArxiv?) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs. Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)