2026-05-28原文

You Are in Control of Your State: Why Human Outcomes Are Controllable Through Causal State Intervention

This paper argues that within-person behavioral variability stems from dynamic latent states, not solely from observable inputs. By intervening on the state's weighting at decision time, outcomes become causally controllable. The framework integrates six lines of evidence (causal inference, predictive processing, allostasis, attentional bottleneck, chronobiology, computational psychiatry) and a 24-month observational dataset from over 200,000 users. It yields seven testable predictions and six operational requirements for state-aware systems, with implications for digital health, education, AI personalization, and personal agency.

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Key points

Human behavioral variability is explained by dynamic latent states, not solely by observable inputs.
State is defined as a time-indexed weighting vector; intervening on state can causally control outcomes.
Framework supported by six lines of evidence and 24-month data from over 200,000 users.
Generates seven testable predictions and six operational requirements for state-aware systems.

Why it matters

This matters because human behavioral variability is explained by dynamic latent states, not solely by observable inputs.

Technical impact

May affect model selection, inference cost, product capability, and evaluation benchmarks.

[2605.27580] You Are in Control of Your State: Why Human Outcomes Are Controllable Through Causal State Intervention

[Submitted on 26 May 2026]

Title:You Are in Control of Your State: Why Human Outcomes Are Controllable Through Causal State Intervention

View a PDF of the paper titled You Are in Control of Your State: Why Human Outcomes Are Controllable Through Causal State Intervention, by Suraj Biswas and 2 other authors

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Abstract:A central puzzle for the behavioural sciences and for human-facing artificial intelligence is the persistence of within-person variability. The same individual, presented with the same observable input, produces different outcomes on different occasions, and different individuals produce divergent outcomes that no observable covariate fully predicts. We argue that this variability belongs in the dynamic latent state of the person, and that human outcomes are controllable in a precise and operational sense through interventions that target the state and its weighting at the moment a decision is being formed.

We define a state as the time-indexed weighting vector over the dimensions that govern how an individual's biology, physiology, and neuropsychology process the next event into a decision and an outcome. The relationship between state, decision, and outcome is causal rather than correlational. The weighting vector is dynamic at sub-daily timescales. The conscious channel through which outcomes are reportable is a narrow attentional bottleneck whose contents are themselves state-dependent. Taken together, these claims imply that the outcome of a given event is controllable, conditionally, on the state-trajectory at the time of intervention.

We motivate the framework with six strands of established evidence (causal inference, predictive processing, allostasis, attentional bottleneck, chronobiology, computational psychiatry) and a 24-month observational base from a deployed behavioural platform spanning more than 200,000 consented users across four occupational personas (research period 2023 to 2026). We derive seven testable predictions, list six operational requirements for state-aware systems, and discuss implications for digital health, education, AI personalisation, and personal agency.

Comments: 20 pages, 12 figures, 37 references. Companion to a prior SSRN preprint on causal architecture for human modelling

Subjects:

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Neurons and Cognition (q-bio.NC)

ACM classes: I.2.0; J.4

Cite as: arXiv:2605.27580 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2605.27580v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2605.27580

arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

Submission history

From: Suraj Biswas [view email] [v1] Tue, 26 May 2026 18:49:41 UTC (15,763 KB)

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View a PDF of the paper titled You Are in Control of Your State: Why Human Outcomes Are Controllable Through Causal State Intervention, by Suraj Biswas and 2 other authors

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