Velocity-coupled Representation Refinement for Satellite Orbit Prediction
arXiv:2608.23728v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Satellite orbit prediction, which aims to forecast future orbital trajectories from historical observations, is important for collision warning and safe space operations. With advances in time-series forecasting, learning-based methods have emerged as a promising solution for satellite prediction. In orbital dynamics, a satellite state is typically described by position and velocity, where position characterizes trajectory geometry and velocity reflects its instantaneous direction and rate of change. However, most existing methods mainly focus on temporal dependencies within position sequences while rarely exploiting the intrinsic coupling between position and velocity, which is essential for modeling satellite motion. To this end, we propose OrbitNet, a velocity-aware representation learning method for accurate satellite orbit prediction. It lifts conventional position-sequence forecasting to a position-velocity coupled representation learning paradigm by exploiting relationships among satellite state variables. Specifically, we develop a velocity-coupled representation refinement strategy to enhance positional representations through cross-variable interactions between position and velocity. We further introduce orbital segment modeling, which partitions historical trajectories into temporal segments and performs segment-level temporal learning to capture local motion variations and long-range evolution patterns. Extensive experiments show that OrbitNet outperforms large time-series foundation models and representative general forecasting methods under both in-domain evaluation on Starlink and zero-shot evaluation across six unseen satellite constellations. We expect this work to encourage further exploration of satellite-aware representation learning for trajectory time-series forecasting.
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[Submitted on 24 Aug 2026]
Title:Velocity-coupled Representation Refinement for Satellite Orbit Prediction
View a PDF of the paper titled Velocity-coupled Representation Refinement for Satellite Orbit Prediction, by Yue Yang and 3 other authors
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Abstract:Satellite orbit prediction, which aims to forecast future orbital trajectories from historical observations, is important for collision warning and safe space operations. With advances in time-series forecasting, learning-based methods have emerged as a promising solution for satellite prediction. In orbital dynamics, a satellite state is typically described by position and velocity, where position characterizes trajectory geometry and velocity reflects its instantaneous direction and rate of change. However, most existing methods mainly focus on temporal dependencies within position sequences while rarely exploiting the intrinsic coupling between position and velocity, which is essential for modeling satellite motion. To this end, we propose OrbitNet, a velocity-aware representation learning method for accurate satellite orbit prediction. It lifts conventional position-sequence forecasting to a position-velocity coupled representation learning paradigm by exploiting relationships among satellite state variables. Specifically, we develop a velocity-coupled representation refinement strategy to enhance positional representations through cross-variable interactions between position and velocity. We further introduce orbital segment modeling, which partitions historical trajectories into temporal segments and performs segment-level temporal learning to capture local motion variations and long-range evolution patterns. Extensive experiments show that OrbitNet outperforms large time-series foundation models and representative general forecasting methods under both in-domain evaluation on Starlink and zero-shot evaluation across six unseen satellite constellations. We expect this work to encourage further exploration of satellite-aware representation learning for trajectory time-series forecasting.
Comments: 18 pages, 6 figures
Subjects:
Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (cs.CV)
Cite as: arXiv:2608.23728 [cs.CV]
(or arXiv:2608.23728v1 [cs.CV] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.23728
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
Submission history
From: Yue Yang [view email] [v1] Mon, 24 Aug 2026 18:14:47 UTC (1,516 KB)
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