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Two Years of Local AI on a Laptop: When Open Models Outpaced Moore's Law

From May 2024 to May 2026, the most expensive MacBook Pro stayed at 128 GB of unified memory, yet the smartest open-weight model running on it jumped from a score of 10 to 47 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index—a 4.7× improvement, doubling every 10.7 months, more than twice the pace of Moore's Law. Gains came from sparse mixture-of-experts, aggressive quantization, and reasoning-tuned small dense models.

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Two Years of Local AI on a Laptop: When Open Models Outpaced Moore's Law
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  • Open-weight AI models on a 128 GB MacBook Pro improved 4.7× in intelligence score over 24 months, doubling faster than Moore's Law.
  • Two key breakthroughs: sparse MoE models (e.g., gpt-oss-120B) and small dense reasoning models (e.g., Qwen3.6 27B).
  • Hardware remained nearly unchanged; all progress stemmed from software and model design innovations.

Highlights and analysis are generated automatically and may contain errors. Check the original source.

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