The State of the AI Economy
A new report reconstructs the AI economy from the bottom up, capturing real customer demand without double-counting. It finds the AI economy is bigger and faster than any previous tech wave, yet still early, with revenue barely covering infrastructure costs. Future growth depends on demand acceleration as prices fall and the real intelligence per token.
An Exponential View Report · June 2026
The State of the AI Economy
For the first time, we've reconstructed the AI economy from the bottom up, capturing every real dollar of customer demand, no double-counting.
By Azeem Azhar, William Gildea, Hannah Petrovic PhD, Nathan Warren & Marija Gavrilov
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The top line
The AI economy is bigger and faster than any technology wave before it, yet still small enough to be early.
It's (just) covering the infrastructure bill.
What happens next depends on how fast demand grows as prices fall and how much real intelligence each token delivers.
Read the accompanying essay →
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