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The Probabilistic Structure of Large Language Models

Summary

A new 27-page expository arXiv paper by Adnan Aboulalaâ, "The Probabilistic Structure of Large Language Models," offers a unified probabilistic account of LLMs: models as probability measures over token sequences, training as maximum-likelihood estimation, and generation as sequential simulation of a stochastic process. It also uses the asymmetry of the Kullback–Leibler divergence to discuss hallucination and the gap between statistical plausibility and truth, and brings diffusion models into the same framework.

SourcearXiv Machine LearningAuthor: Adnan Aboulala\^a
The Probabilistic Structure of Large Language Models
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[Submitted on 20 Sep 2026]

Title:The Probabilistic Structure of Large Language Models

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Abstract:This paper presents a probabilistic perspective on large language models (LLMs), developed with the aim of bringing together, in a single self-contained account, tools that are usually treated separately across the literature. LLMs are described through probability measures on the set of sequences of tokens, specified via their autoregressive conditional distributions. Training is formulated as a maximum-likelihood estimation problem, addressed by stochastic gradient methods, while text generation is viewed as the sequential simulation of the resulting stochastic process. The role of the asymmetry of the Kullback--Leibler divergence in text generation is examined in relation with characteristic phenomena such as hallucination and the distinction between statistical plausibility and truth. As a complementary illustration of the same viewpoint, we also discuss diffusion models, built around the score function, which cast generation not as sequential token prediction but as the simulation of a reverse-time stochastic process transforming noise into data both in discrete and continuous time.

Comments: Expository article on the probabilistic structure of large language models, 27 pages

Subjects:

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Probability (math.PR); Machine Learning (stat.ML)

MSC classes: Primary 60J10, 60J60, 62F10, Secondary 60H10, 94A17, 68T50

Cite as: arXiv:2609.25134 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2609.25134v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.25134

arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

Submission history

From: Adnan Aboulalaâ [view email] [v1] Sun, 20 Sep 2026 21:53:57 UTC (36 KB)

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Key points and analysis

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Key points

  • LLMs are formalized as probability measures on the set of token sequences, specified by their autoregressive conditional distributions.
  • Training is cast as maximum-likelihood estimation solved with stochastic gradient methods, while generation is the sequential simulation of the resulting stochastic process.
  • The asymmetry of the Kullback–Leibler divergence is linked to hallucination and to the distinction between statistical plausibility and truth.
  • Score-based diffusion models are presented as a complementary illustration, framing generation as simulation of a reverse-time stochastic process that turns noise into data.

Highlights and analysis are generated automatically and may contain errors. Check the original source.