Show HN: AI Model Benchmark for Crypto Price Predictions
Coinsignal launched a new benchmark ranking 13 AI models on cryptocurrency price prediction accuracy. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leads with 73.8% average accuracy and 78.5% recent accuracy. The benchmark measures direction, range closeness, and range overlap.
Verified predictions10,885
Only completed prediction windows with accuracy scores are included.
Models compared13
Grouped by model name across every tracked coin.
Best avg accuracy73.8%
Mean score from direction, range closeness, and range overlap.
Best recent form78.5%
Average accuracy over each model's latest 10 verified calls.
Accuracy
Primary quality score already recorded for each model.
Hit Rate
Share of predictions scoring at least 70%.
Consistency
Rewards models with lower accuracy variance.
Calibration
Checks whether confidence matches actual results.
Recency
Separates current form from older performance.
RankModelScoreAvg accuracyRecentHit rateConsistencyConf gapSamplesCoinsLast verified
#1openai/gpt-5.4High-confidence avg: 57.4%78.7%73.8%67.6%79.9%80.3%-8.7%1067ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4May 30, 06:07 PM
#2minimax/minimax-m2.7High-confidence avg: 44.8%71.7%66.1%69.7%65.6%75.7%-3.9%195ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4Apr 26, 06:05 AM
#3xiaomi/mimo-v2.5High-confidence avg: 46.2%71.2%66.4%69.2%60.3%79.2%-2.7%839ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2May 30, 06:07 PM
#4xiaomi/mimo-v2.5-proHigh-confidence avg: 45.5%71.0%66.6%78.5%60.0%79.3%-5.3%815ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2May 30, 06:05 PM
#5minimax/minimax-m2.5High-confidence avg: 50.8%70.3%65.3%64.8%62.2%76.4%-6.8%1025ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4May 30, 06:07 PM
#6openai/gpt-5-miniHigh-confidence avg: 38.2%68.0%62.6%49.0%57.4%77.3%-5.7%1110ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4May 30, 12:04 PM
#7qwen/qwen3.5-plus-20260420High-confidence avg: 51.5%66.1%61.6%67.3%48.5%78.6%-3.6%824ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2May 30, 06:07 PM
#8moonshotai/kimi-k2.5High-confidence avg: 42.8%64.4%59.0%66.1%46.9%75.9%-0.0%1024ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4May 30, 06:05 PM
#9z-ai/glm-5.1High-confidence avg: 44.4%63.8%59.0%62.7%44.3%77.9%+2.5%1114ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4May 30, 12:05 PM
#10deepseek/deepseek-v4-flashHigh-confidence avg: 48.0%63.7%58.7%64.9%43.3%78.5%-0.5%834ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2May 30, 06:05 PM
#11google/gemini-3-flash-previewHigh-confidence avg: 42.2%62.5%58.1%55.9%43.0%78.1%+8.6%1015ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4May 30, 12:03 PM
#12z-ai/glm-5High-confidence avg: 42.8%61.5%54.7%68.3%52.8%67.7%+9.1%195ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, DOGE +4Apr 26, 06:05 AM
#13deepseek/deepseek-v4-proHigh-confidence avg: 42.3%58.0%54.0%65.5%31.8%79.4%+10.3%828ADA, AVAX, BNB, BTC, ETH +2May 30, 06:05 PM