[Submitted on 3 Oct 2026]
Title:QiYao-I: A Manifold Based Foundation Model for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
View a PDF of the paper titled QiYao-I: A Manifold Based Foundation Model for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting, by Linfeng Wang and 8 other authors
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Abstract:Irregular multivariate time series forecasting is a challenging yet important problem in real-world applications, where observations are often irregularly sampled and asynchronously recorded across variables. Existing time series foundation models are mostly built on regularly sampled sequences, making them difficult to generalize to irregular time intervals and asynchronous cross-variable dependencies. To address these challenges, we propose QiYao-I, a manifold based foundation model for irregular multivariate time series forecasting. Specifically, we introduce a novel sampling-conditioned temporal manifold attention mechanism that maps real timestamps into a learnable temporal manifold feature space and injects temporal manifold biases into attention layers, enabling the model to capture both irregular time intervals and local sampling structures. Further, we propose a dynamic variable interaction mechanism with frequency awareness. It selectively performs cross-variable message passing under asynchronous observations. Extensive experiments on real-world irregular multivariate forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that QiYao-I achieves superior performance compared with both time series foundation models and end-to-end irregular forecasting models, showing strong generalization ability in zero-shot and few-shot settings.
Comments: 29 pages, 5 figures, 20 tables. Preprint
Subjects:
Machine Learning (cs.LG)
Cite as: arXiv:2610.06936 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2610.06936v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.06936
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
Submission history
From: Linfeng Wang [view email] [v1] Sat, 3 Oct 2026 06:16:59 UTC (1,907 KB)
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