QANTIS: Hardware-Calibrated Sequential POMDP Belief Updates on IBM Heron
QANTIS treats a quantum processor as a calibrated belief-update service for autonomous systems under partial observability. Using IBM Heron hardware on the Tiger POMDP, the study shows that all-step fixed-point amplification preserves the posterior across sequential steps, with hardware posteriors matching exact Bayes posteriors in all decision checks. Boundary-aware BIQAE stabilizes amplitude estimation, and a rare-event sweep maps sample complexity for one-in-a-million evidence.
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[Submitted on 7 Jul 2026]
Title:QANTIS: Hardware-Calibrated Sequential POMDP Belief Updates on IBM Heron
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Abstract:Autonomous systems under partial observability act on beliefs, not raw sensor events. QANTIS treats the quantum processor as a calibrated belief-update service in that loop: it receives a prior and an observation model, estimates the rare-event evidence term, and returns an ordinary posterior to a classical planner. This paper asks whether that service can be reused across a sequential Tiger POMDP horizon on present IBM Heron hardware without corrupting the planner-facing posterior. We answer with a controlled hardware case study rather than an end-to-end autonomy or wall-clock speedup claim. The study compares no amplification, guarded Grover amplification, and all-step fixed-point amplification on the same trajectory, then checks whether the returned posterior would change the downstream action. All-step FPAA preserves the Tiger posterior across the reported 8-step and 12-step primary runs, and the 20-step and 32-step controls remain inside the same operating band. In every reported decision check, the hardware posterior and the exact Bayes posterior select the same immediate action. Boundary-aware BIQAE stabilizes amplitude estimation near zero and near one, while a rare-event sweep maps the logical sample-complexity envelope for one-in-a-million evidence. The result is an operating envelope for a hardware-calibrated belief-update primitive, not a standalone hardware-advantage claim.
Comments: 10 pages, 6 figures
Subjects:
Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Quantum Physics (quant-ph)
Cite as: arXiv:2607.06760 [cs.AI]
(or arXiv:2607.06760v1 [cs.AI] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.06760
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
Submission history
From: Bayram Yuksel Eker [view email] [v1] Tue, 7 Jul 2026 19:43:32 UTC (42 KB)
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