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Land cover and flood type govern the detection limits of satellite-based flood mapping across diverse global flood events

Summary

A study using the Prithvi-EO-2.0 model across 19 global flood events (2017-2025) found that detection accuracy depends jointly on land cover and flood type: cropland showed highest agreement (IoU=52%) and riverine events strongest detection (F1=0.69), while tree cover and built-up areas had near-zero detection (IoU=4%). Dual-reference validation revealed some apparent model error is due to reference inconsistencies. 23 failure modes were identified, with pipeline engineering dominating initial error.

SourcearXiv AIAuthor: Venkatesh Kolluru, Rajat Shinde, Abdelhak Marouane, Caden Helbling, Deepak Shah, Othneil Drew, Iksha Gurung, Manil Maskey, Rahul Ramachandran
Land cover and flood type govern the detection limits of satellite-based flood mapping across diverse global flood events
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[2606.07780] Land cover and flood type govern the detection limits of satellite-based flood mapping across diverse global flood events

[Submitted on 5 Jun 2026]

Title:Land cover and flood type govern the detection limits of satellite-based flood mapping across diverse global flood events

View a PDF of the paper titled Land cover and flood type govern the detection limits of satellite-based flood mapping across diverse global flood events, by Venkatesh Kolluru and 8 other authors

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Abstract:Floods are among the most destructive natural hazards, and their increasing frequency under climate change makes satellite-based inundation mapping essential for disaster response. Geospatial foundation models pretrained on satellite archives offer geographic transferability, but their operational reliability across diverse, unseen events remains uncharacterized. Here we deploy Prithvi-EO-2.0 across 19 out-of-distribution flood events (2017-2025) spanning six continents, eight climate zones, and six flood mechanisms, validating against two independent reference products. Detection accuracy depended jointly on land cover and flood type, with cropland yielding the highest agreement (IoU=52%) and riverine events the strongest detection (F1=0.69), while tree cover and built-up areas showed near-zero detection (IoU=4%) regardless of flood mechanism. Dual-reference validation revealed that apparent model error partly reflects definitional inconsistency between reference products rather than detection failure. Iterative pipeline testing identified 23 failure modes, with pipeline engineering dominating initial error over model capacity. These findings establish environment-dependent detection boundaries for operational satellite flood mapping.

Subjects:

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (cs.CV); Machine Learning (cs.LG)

Cite as: arXiv:2606.07780 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2606.07780v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2606.07780

arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

Submission history

From: Venkatesh Kolluru Dr [view email] [v1] Fri, 5 Jun 2026 18:46:03 UTC (7,964 KB)

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Key points and analysis

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Key points

  • Detection accuracy depends on both land cover and flood type; cropland and riverine floods perform best.
  • Tree cover and built-up areas show near-zero detection regardless of flood mechanism.
  • Dual-reference validation indicates that reference product inconsistencies can be mistaken for model failure.
  • Pipeline engineering improvements are more critical than model capacity for reducing initial errors.

Highlights and analysis are generated automatically and may contain errors. Check the original source.

Land cover and flood type govern the detection limits of satellite-based flood mapping across diverse global flood events | AI News Hub