From Causal Plausibility to Causal Reliability: Evaluating LLMs as Calibrated Direct Causal-Edge Classifiers
arXiv:2608.23660v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to provide prior causal knowledge for structural causal discovery, yet whether their direct-edge judgments and confidence can be trusted remains unclear. We systematically evaluate 12 instruction-tuned open-weight models across six benchmark causal graphs, five prompting strategies, and four confidence sources: verbalized, logit-based, cross-prompt agreement, and cross-model agreement. Under our language-only pairwise protocol, our evaluation yields three key findings. (i) LLM-based causal judgments are strongly recall-dominant: models predict overly dense graphs with many false-positive edges, while prompting mainly shifts the precision-recall trade-off rather than resolving overprediction. Gains from model scale diminish on the largest graphs and do not eliminate miscalibration. (ii) LLMs often capture causal relatedness without reliably identifying directness or orientation. Relative to published reference graphs, models misclassify 40.0% of indirect and 36.0% of reversed non-edges as direct edges, versus 28.2% of other non-edges. Moreover, 80.8% and 84.6% of these false positives receive verbalized confidence of at least 80%, revealing substantial overconfidence in structurally incorrect predictions. (iii) Conventional confidence estimates are unreliable, whereas agreement offers a more promising signal. Logit-based confidence frequently collapses near 1.0 regardless of correctness, while cross-prompt and cross-model agreement achieve better mean calibration and discrimination, though their advantages are not statistically significant after Holm correction. A benchmark-familiarity audit further identifies potential familiarity in five model-dataset pairs, all involving AsiaM. Overall, our results suggest LLMs are better viewed as sources of externally validated soft causal priors than as direct evidence of causal structure.
-->
[Submitted on 24 Aug 2026]
Title:From Causal Plausibility to Causal Reliability: Evaluating LLMs as Calibrated Direct Causal-Edge Classifiers
View a PDF of the paper titled From Causal Plausibility to Causal Reliability: Evaluating LLMs as Calibrated Direct Causal-Edge Classifiers, by Amit Kumar and 6 other authors
View PDF HTML (experimental)
Abstract:Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to provide prior causal knowledge for structural causal discovery, yet whether their direct-edge judgments and confidence can be trusted remains unclear. We systematically evaluate 12 instruction-tuned open-weight models across six benchmark causal graphs, five prompting strategies, and four confidence sources: verbalized, logit-based, cross-prompt agreement, and cross-model agreement. Under our language-only pairwise protocol, our evaluation yields three key findings. (i) LLM-based causal judgments are strongly recall-dominant: models predict overly dense graphs with many false-positive edges, while prompting mainly shifts the precision-recall trade-off rather than resolving overprediction. Gains from model scale diminish on the largest graphs and do not eliminate miscalibration. (ii) LLMs often capture causal relatedness without reliably identifying directness or orientation. Relative to published reference graphs, models misclassify 40.0% of indirect and 36.0% of reversed non-edges as direct edges, versus 28.2% of other non-edges. Moreover, 80.8% and 84.6% of these false positives receive verbalized confidence of at least 80%, revealing substantial overconfidence in structurally incorrect predictions. (iii) Conventional confidence estimates are unreliable, whereas agreement offers a more promising signal. Logit-based confidence frequently collapses near 1.0 regardless of correctness, while cross-prompt and cross-model agreement achieve better mean calibration and discrimination, though their advantages are not statistically significant after Holm correction. A benchmark-familiarity audit further identifies potential familiarity in five model-dataset pairs, all involving AsiaM. Overall, our results suggest LLMs are better viewed as sources of externally validated soft causal priors than as direct evidence of causal structure.
Subjects:
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Methodology (stat.ME)
Cite as: arXiv:2608.23660 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2608.23660v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.23660
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
Submission history
From: Amit Kumar [view email] [v1] Mon, 24 Aug 2026 15:55:47 UTC (3,666 KB)
Full-text links:
Access Paper:
View a PDF of the paper titled From Causal Plausibility to Causal Reliability: Evaluating LLMs as Calibrated Direct Causal-Edge Classifiers, by Amit Kumar and 6 other authors
View PDF
HTML (experimental)
TeX Source
view license
Current browse context:
cs.LG
new | recent | 2026-08
Change to browse by:
cs cs.AI stat stat.ME
References & Citations
NASA ADS
Google Scholar
Semantic Scholar
Loading...
Data provided by:
Bibliographic Tools
Bibliographic and Citation Tools
Bibliographic Explorer Toggle
Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?)
Connected Papers Toggle
Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?)
Litmaps Toggle
Litmaps (What is Litmaps?)
scite.ai Toggle
scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?)
Code, Data, Media
Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article
alphaXiv Toggle
alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?)
Links to Code Toggle
CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?)
DagsHub Toggle
DagsHub (What is DagsHub?)
GotitPub Toggle
Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?)
Huggingface Toggle
Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?)
ScienceCast Toggle
ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?)
Demos
Demos
Replicate Toggle
Replicate (What is Replicate?)
Spaces Toggle
Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?)
Spaces Toggle
TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?)
Related Papers
Recommenders and Search Tools
Link to Influence Flower
Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?)
Core recommender toggle
CORE Recommender (What is CORE?)
IArxiv recommender toggle
IArxiv Recommender (What is IArxiv?)
Author
Venue
Institution
Topic
About arXivLabs
arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators
arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.
Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.
Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.
Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)