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[Submitted on 14 Oct 2026] Title:Feasibility Ceilings Before Learning: Sizing and Timing Bounds for Drone-Mesh Interception View a PDF of the paper titled Feasibility Ceilings Before Learning: Sizing and Timing Bounds for Drone-Mesh Interception, by Dmytro Babarytskyi View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:A mesh of interceptors defending a fixed site must spread over the predicted arrival point of an approaching object. This is a recurring task in multi-agent robotics: N agents, each covering a disc of radius r, spread over a probability density so that a point drawn from it falls within some agent's disc. We give closed forms for the quantities that bound performance before any policy is chosen, and validate each by Monte Carlo. The uncertainty of a point predicted by extrapolating a noisy linear track follows from least-squares variance propagation plus a delta-method term for the uncertain arrival time, agreeing with simulation to within 1.8%. The coverage probability of a packed mesh admits a closed form accurate to 0.007 absolute, with a volumetric analogue. A naive area ratio misses a ceiling: while agents stay at least 2r apart, no mesh exceeds 90.69% coverage in the plane or 74.05% in a volume. This ceiling belongs to the separation constraint, not to the problem - permitting overlap substitutes Kershner's thinnest-covering density and removes it, the better regime above a crossover at p=0.80. Hexagonal packing is optimal among five arrangements; the centroidal-Voronoi configuration coverage control supplies reaches only half its coverage at small budgets. The Gaussian assumption is conservative under heavy tails and anisotropy but fragile under bias: a one-sigma aim-point offset costs 14 points of coverage. A repositioning team must also choose a commit time, and the admissible window can be empty. Against the applicable ceiling, analytic placement attains 85% of what the configuration permits while centralised PPO averages 15% over three trainer seeds, with a paired bootstrap against a null policy containing zero at every seed. We argue such ceilings should be computed before any learning experiment and quoted alongside every result. Comments: 13 pages, 6 figures, 8 tables. Code, data and policy checkpoints: this https URL Subjects: Robotics (cs.RO); Machine Learning (cs.LG); Multiagent Systems (cs.MA) MSC classes: 68T40, 52C15, 52C17, 62J05 ACM classes: I.2.9; I.2.11; G.3 Cite as: arXiv:2610.20823 [cs.RO] (or arXiv:2610.20823v1 [cs.RO] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.20823 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) Submission history From: Dmytro Babarytskyi [view email] [v1] Wed, 14 Oct 2026 19:09:35 UTC (458 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled Feasibility Ceilings Before Learning: Sizing and Timing Bounds for Drone-Mesh Interception, by Dmytro Babarytskyi View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Additional Features Audio Summary Current browse context: cs.RO new | recent | 2026-10 Change to browse by: cs cs.LG cs.MA References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar Loading... Data provided by: Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate (What is Replicate?) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs. Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)