[2606.28460] Counterfactual Residual Data Augmentation for Regression
[Submitted on 26 Jun 2026]
Title:Counterfactual Residual Data Augmentation for Regression
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Abstract:Data-driven modeling in real-world regression tasks often suffers from limited training samples, high collection costs, and noisy observations. Inspired by the impact of data augmentation in vision and language, we propose a novel Counterfactual Residual Data Augmentation (CRDA) technique for tabular regression. Our key insight is that once a regressor has modeled the systematic component of the data, the remaining noise can be viewed as an invariant residual that remains stable under small perturbations of carefully selected features. We exploit this residual invariance to generate new, yet realistic, training samples, effectively expanding the dataset without requiring additional real data. Our method is model-agnostic and readily applicable to various types of regressors. In experiments across datasets from a variety of benchmark repositories, on average, CRDA reduces an MLP Regressor's MSE by 22.9% and an XGBoost Regressor's MSE by 6.4%. When compared to existing state-of-the-art data generators and augmentation techniques, CRDA consistently outperforms in MSE reduction. By adding principled counterfactual variations to the training data, our method offers a simple and efficient remedy for noise-prone, small-sample regression settings.
Comments: Accepted at the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2026). 25 pages, 8 figures. Project page: this https URL
Subjects:
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
Cite as: arXiv:2606.28460 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2606.28460v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2606.28460
arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
Submission history
From: Hossein Mohebbi [view email] [v1] Fri, 26 Jun 2026 13:04:37 UTC (563 KB)
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