AI model release forecasts from prediction markets
Based on prediction market data, this article lists estimated release dates for major AI models (e.g., Claude Opus, Gemini Pro, GPT-6), including median dates and probability distributions.
Jul 22, 2026
Forecast date
Overview
Median forecast dates
Circle: median · Solid line: 25–75% IQR · Vertical cursor: forecast date · Arrow: percentile beyond priced horizon · Grey: no median or unavailable on selected date
Next Claude Opus
Next Google Gemini Pro Model
Next Mythos-Class Model
GPT-6
Next Claude Sonnet
Next Claude Haiku
Jul 1Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Dec 1Jan 1
Model or changeProviderDate signal
Claude Mythos 5 access restored Anthropic Not available on this date
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? Anthropic Not available on this date
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? Anthropic Not available on this date
Next Claude Opus Anthropic Median Jul 27, 2026
Anthropic announces permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 Anthropic Not available on this date
Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5 Anthropic No median; 1.2% probability by Jul 31, 2026
Gemini 4.0 Google No median; 0.9% probability by Jul 31, 2026
New Gemini reasoning flagship Google No median; 40% probability by Jul 31, 2026
Next Google Gemini Pro Model Google Median Aug 6, 2026
Next Mythos-Class Model Anthropic Median Sep 8, 2026
GPT-6 OpenAI Median Sep 9, 2026
Next Claude Sonnet Anthropic Median Oct 6, 2026
Next Claude Haiku Anthropic Median Dec 2, 2026
Next Claude Opus
median release
The combined distribution reaches 99% by Dec 31, 2026.
Markets: By-deadline market · Exact-date market
release forecast (combined by/on markets)
Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5
Only 1.2% probability by Jul 31, 2026
Later dates are not priced by this market, so no median date for the change is inferred.
Markets: Deadline market
consumer change forecast (multi-deadline)
New Gemini reasoning flagship
Only 40% probability by Jul 31, 2026
Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.
Markets: By-deadline market
release forecast
Gemini 4.0
Only 0.9% probability by Jul 31, 2026
Later dates are not priced by these markets, so no median release date is inferred.
Markets: By-deadline market
release forecast
Next Google Gemini Pro Model
median release
The combined distribution reaches 86% by Aug 31, 2026.
Markets: By-deadline market · Exact-date market
release forecast (combined by/on markets)
Next Mythos-Class Model
median release
The combined distribution reaches 80% by Sep 30, 2026.
Markets: By-deadline market
release forecast
GPT-6
median release
The combined distribution reaches 88% by Dec 31, 2026.
Markets: By-deadline market
release forecast
Next Claude Sonnet
median release
The combined distribution reaches 95% by Dec 31, 2026.
Markets: By-deadline market
release forecast
Next Claude Haiku
median release
The combined distribution reaches 53% by Dec 31, 2026.
Markets: By-deadline market
release forecast