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2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadership

Anthropic releases a paper outlining two scenarios for US-China AI competition by 2028. One where democracies maintain a commanding lead through tightened export controls and countering distillation attacks, and another where China catches up due to inaction, leading to authoritarian AI norms. The paper emphasizes the urgency of policy action to secure democratic AI leadership.

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2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadership
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Key points

  • The US currently leads in compute but China is close behind due to talent and exploiting export control loopholes.
  • Tightening controls and disrupting distillation could secure a 12-24 month lead by 2028.
  • Inaction could allow China to overtake, enabling automated repression via AI.
  • Democratic leadership is crucial to prevent authoritarian shaping of AI norms.

Highlights and analysis are generated automatically and may contain errors. Check the original source.