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[Submitted on 10 Sep 2026] Title:Uncertainty-Aware Conflict Detection Against Operator-Conditioned Weather Hazards View a PDF of the paper titled Uncertainty-Aware Conflict Detection Against Operator-Conditioned Weather Hazards, by Balram Kandoria and 1 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:Strategic flight plan validation in Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) environments requires robust methods for predicting aircraft state uncertainty and detecting potential conflicts with dynamic airspace hazards. This paper presents a novel framework for uncertainty-conditioned trajectory prediction combined with polyhedra hazard representation for pre-flight conflict detection. We introduce a closed-form uncertainty estimation method that couples non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) curve fitting for kinematic trajectory generation with a Kalman Filter for state covariance propagation. Drawing from the Light Propagation Algorithm (LPA) paradigm, we employ a sigmoid-blended measurement noise model that captures the uncertainty reduction behavior of flight management systems approaching the required time of arrival (RTA) for waypoints. The resulting temporal uncertainty bounds are derived through a velocity-to-time variance transformation, enabling probabilistic assessment of arrival time deviations along the flight path. For hazard representation, we develop an operator-conditioned classification scheme that transforms gridded environmental data, specifically weather phenomena, into three-dimensional polyhedra volumes with intensity-based stratification. These hazard polyhedra incorporate aircraft-specific safety buffers computed from vehicle performance characteristics. Conflict detection is performed through mesh intersection algorithms operating on the spatial uncertainty tube surrounding the mean trajectory against the hazard polyhedra and temporal overlap. The framework enables the continuous strategic validation of flight plans throughout the pre-flight planning time horizon as environmental conditions evolve. Subjects: Robotics (cs.RO) Cite as: arXiv:2609.12095 [cs.RO] (or arXiv:2609.12095v1 [cs.RO] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.12095 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) Submission history From: Aryaman Singh Samyal [view email] [v1] Thu, 10 Sep 2026 18:18:42 UTC (20,930 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled Uncertainty-Aware Conflict Detection Against Operator-Conditioned Weather Hazards, by Balram Kandoria and 1 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Current browse context: cs.RO new | recent | 2026-09 Change to browse by: cs References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar Loading... Data provided by: Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate (What is Replicate?) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs. Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)