待翻譯：RAM pricing has risen to normalized 2007 levels

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15 Join the conversation Follow us Add us as a preferred source on Google Software performance expert, scientist, and GitHub developer Daniel Lemire compared historical computer memory prices and showed that decades of falling prices were undone in just a matter of months because of the massive demand for HBM. According to his X post, this event is a historical anomaly, and he cannot think of an instance where technology hardware prices reverted to levels from decades before. On a historical basis, computer memory has been falling at an exponential rate for decades. But we just undid about 20 years of progress. RAM on a per unit basis is about as expensive as it was in 2007.To my knowledge, it is an historical anomaly. I cannot recall a similar… pic.twitter.com/UH6LgZ1fc4August 5, 2026 “RAM on a per unit basis is about as expensive as it was in 2007,” Lemire said. He also added, “I do not think anyone can predict what will happen, but I am guessing that we either find a way to build AI systems without so much memory, or we find really clever ways to make much more memory much faster.” We also checked third-party data compiled and maintained by David Shim for the Stanford DAM Project. The latest price for DDR5 memory sits between $13.28 and $11.41 per GB — the last time RAM hit this price was in 2008, when the price for DDR2 hovered by $15 and 11.00 per GB. These are based on nominal USD values, though. If we take 2024 inflation into account, the current amount for DD5 is between $12.74 and $10.94 per GB, which was last achieved in 2011, when DDR3 prices were at $11.85 per GB. Latest Videos FromTom's Hardware Watch full video here: (Image credit: Stanford) Technological advances, especially in manufacturing and miniaturization, meant that tech became cheaper over time. This has been true ever since the first general-purpose digital computer was created 80 years ago. ENIAC cost the government $400,000 in 1946, meaning it would probably cost around $6,850,297.44 today. However, its computing power equaled roughly 5,000 additions per second — by comparison, one of the cheapest smartphones you can get today, the Moto G Play, is on sale for $99.99. This smartphone is powered by a Snapdragon 680 processor with AI performance of 3.3 TOPS — that is 3.3 trillion operations per second. We can’t really compare the ENIAC to a modern processor, but it at least shows us the scale by which technology has advanced, and prices have dropped. The massive increase in memory prices in recent times wasn’t caused by technological regression or a bottleneck in supply — instead, it’s the massive demand for HBM driven by the AI race. “The memory output is increasing by around 20% per year. Now, normally, that would be fantastically fast and amazing for any large, mature industry, but ask yourself, ‘Is the demand increasing by 20% a year?” Elon Musk said during the last SpaceX earnings call. “No, the demand is increasing by 200% a year, maybe higher.” Other experts and industry leaders agree with Musk. The chairman of the SK Group, the holding company that owns memory chip manufacturer SK hynix, said that RAM prices are “abnormally high,” and that the industry must take steps to increase supply and lower prices. Even RAM that uses chips from Chinese manufacturer CXMT, which some people look to as a cheaper alternative, generally tracked the prices of modules that use chips from the big three (Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix). Aside from computers, other industries are already being affected by the shortage, including graphics cards, smartphones, gaming consoles, and even automobiles. We do not know how long the current memory crisis will last, but the situation is unsustainable and “something has to give.” The scary thing is that nobody knows what would happen if and when that time comes. Follow Tom's Hardware on Google News, or add us as a preferred source, to get our latest news, analysis, & reviews in your feeds. Reply Reply Reply https://archive.ph/eWT4P While mid-2025 prices were much better than 2007 prices, that two decade period included a lot of stagnation. Prices spiked around 2009, 2013, 2017, and to a lesser extent during the pandemic. Seems like a pattern of cyclical price increases every 4-5 years. Density improvements also slowed down considerably, which is why we saw half measures like the 24/48 GB modules based on 24 Gb dies. 3D DRAM will bring us to the promised land... 10+ years from now. The cheap RAM era was when memory companies were trying to stay afloat and at risk of going under. Going back to that, for an extended period, means they go under and there is no more RAM. Consumers get a good deal with companies are failing businesses and losing money but selling to try to survive long enough to bring money in. Then consumers get mad when companies are no longer desperate. Companies win when demand is so out of control the various bidders (currently hyper scalers Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) bid up the price into the stratosphere driving out smaller buyers. It's a stupidly violatile industry. Even worse that volatility means that smaller companies keep getting called off each time profits drop. So eras of cheap RAM inherently create and enforce a monopoly. Boom ears bring in more companies. If RAM becomes cheap enough the DIY crowd is happy we will simply see more companies go under and the monopolies get stronger yet again. For example a drop in RAM prices that DIY crowds loved bankrupted Elpida. So Micron bought them out. The cost of periods of cheap RAM is even stronger monopolies resulting in higher prices in the long term. Reply So eras of cheap RAM inherently create and enforce a monopoly. Boom ears bring in more companies. If RAM becomes cheap enough the DIY crowd is happy we will simply see more companies go under and the monopolies get stronger yet again. There is a way other than oversupply to get cheaper RAM: higher density resulting in lower cost per bit on the manufacturing side. It took a long time to double from 16 Gb to 32 Gb. 3D DRAM will reverse the stagnation. But it's going to take around 10 years. Reply The cheap RAM era was when memory companies were trying to stay afloat and at risk of going under. Going back to that, for an extended period, means they go under and there is no more RAM. Consumers get a good deal with companies are failing businesses and losing money but selling to try to survive long enough to bring money in. Then consumers get mad when companies are no longer desperate. Companies win when demand is so out of control the various bidders (currently hyper scalers Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) bid up the price into the stratosphere driving out smaller buyers. It's a stupidly violatile industry. Even worse that volatility means that smaller companies keep getting called off each time profits drop. So eras of cheap RAM inherently create and enforce a monopoly. Boom ears bring in more companies. If RAM becomes cheap enough the DIY crowd is happy we will simply see more companies go under and the monopolies get stronger yet again. For example a drop in RAM prices that DIY crowds loved bankrupted Elpida. So Micron bought them out. The cost of periods of cheap RAM is even stronger monopolies resulting in higher prices in the long term. Or they can just sell it at a good profit without ripping off everyone? Reply Reply Reply Reply Reply Show more comments