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[Submitted on 3 Oct 2026] Title:QiYao-I: A Manifold Based Foundation Model for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting View a PDF of the paper titled QiYao-I: A Manifold Based Foundation Model for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting, by Linfeng Wang and 8 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:Irregular multivariate time series forecasting is a challenging yet important problem in real-world applications, where observations are often irregularly sampled and asynchronously recorded across variables. Existing time series foundation models are mostly built on regularly sampled sequences, making them difficult to generalize to irregular time intervals and asynchronous cross-variable dependencies. To address these challenges, we propose QiYao-I, a manifold based foundation model for irregular multivariate time series forecasting. Specifically, we introduce a novel sampling-conditioned temporal manifold attention mechanism that maps real timestamps into a learnable temporal manifold feature space and injects temporal manifold biases into attention layers, enabling the model to capture both irregular time intervals and local sampling structures. Further, we propose a dynamic variable interaction mechanism with frequency awareness. It selectively performs cross-variable message passing under asynchronous observations. Extensive experiments on real-world irregular multivariate forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that QiYao-I achieves superior performance compared with both time series foundation models and end-to-end irregular forecasting models, showing strong generalization ability in zero-shot and few-shot settings. Comments: 29 pages, 5 figures, 20 tables. Preprint Subjects: Machine Learning (cs.LG) Cite as: arXiv:2610.06936 [cs.LG] (or arXiv:2610.06936v1 [cs.LG] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.06936 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) Submission history From: Linfeng Wang [view email] [v1] Sat, 3 Oct 2026 06:16:59 UTC (1,907 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled QiYao-I: A Manifold Based Foundation Model for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting, by Linfeng Wang and 8 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Additional Features Audio Summary Current browse context: cs.LG new | recent | 2026-10 Change to browse by: cs References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar Loading... Data provided by: Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate (What is Replicate?) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) IArxiv recommender toggle IArxiv Recommender (What is IArxiv?) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs. Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)