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[Submitted on 26 Jun 2026] Title:Physics-Informed Conformal Prediction: Embedding PDE Consistency into Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification for Neural Operators View a PDF of the paper titled Physics-Informed Conformal Prediction: Embedding PDE Consistency into Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification for Neural Operators, by Michael Chin View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:Neural operators such as the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) achieve remarkable accuracy in approximating solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs). However, providing rigorous uncertainty estimates remains an open challenge. We propose Physics-Informed Conformal Prediction (PI-CP), a framework that embeds PDE residuals into the nonconformity score of split conformal prediction, producing prediction intervals that are (i) distribution-free with provable coverage guarantees, and (ii) spatially adaptive when the PDE residual correlates with prediction error -- tighter where physics is well-satisfied, wider where it is violated. Additionally, we prove that FNO's translation equivariance creates a fundamental approximation barrier for PDEs with Dirichlet boundary conditions, and show that coordinate channels resolve this with up to 63x error reduction. We validate PI-CP across six physics scenarios -- heat conduction (2D/3D), structural mechanics (2D/3D), Darcy flow, and Navier-Stokes -- demonstrating consistent 89-91% coverage for all four Conformal methods, while MC Dropout and Deep Ensembles are unstable (82-100%). FNO outperforms CNN and DeepONet by 10-12x. Comments: 14 pages, 11 tables, 5 figures Subjects: Machine Learning (cs.LG) Cite as: arXiv:2609.11935 [cs.LG] (or arXiv:2609.11935v1 [cs.LG] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.11935 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Submission history From: Michael Chin [view email] [v1] Fri, 26 Jun 2026 03:39:29 UTC (66 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled Physics-Informed Conformal Prediction: Embedding PDE Consistency into Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification for Neural Operators, by Michael Chin View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Current browse context: cs.LG new | recent | 2026-09 Change to browse by: cs References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar Loading... Data provided by: Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate (What is Replicate?) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) IArxiv recommender toggle IArxiv Recommender (What is IArxiv?) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs. Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)