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--> [Submitted on 11 Aug 2026] Title:Market-Information-Aware Gated-LoRA of Foundation Models for Transferable Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting View a PDF of the paper titled Market-Information-Aware Gated-LoRA of Foundation Models for Transferable Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting, by Hang Fan and 2 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:Electricity price forecasting is crucial for market participants but remains difficult because prices are volatile, market-specific, and closely tied to anticipated system conditions. Existing supervised methods depend largely on market-specific historical data, limiting their use in newly established or data-scarce markets. This paper proposes a market-information-aware adaptation framework that transfers the Chronos-2 time-series foundation model to day-ahead electricity price forecasting. It first constructs a multi-source market information (MSMI) interface aligning 7-day price context with pre-clearing supply--demand, reserve, maintenance, generator-capacity, and intertie variables, and then trains a source-domain gated low-rank adapter (LoRA), updating about $1\%$ of model parameters without target-market labels. The gate scales the frozen source adapter according to reserve-tightness and operating-state signals. A leave-one-market-out protocol is adopted for evaluating cross-market transferability. Experiments on four Chinese provincial day-ahead spot markets show that the proposed framework reduces the average MAE/RMSE by $6.24\%/7.99\%$ relative to market-information-aware zero-shot Chronos-2 and by $3.05\%/3.52\%$ relative to vanilla Source-LoRA. Experiments show that the gain is not reproduced by a learned global scalar or by random gate initialization, while the additional improvement over Source-LoRA is limited. These results suggest that market-structured inputs and state-dependent gated LoRA can provide a practical transfer path for data-scarce electricity markets. Subjects: Machine Learning (cs.LG) Cite as: arXiv:2608.11359 [cs.LG] (or arXiv:2608.11359v1 [cs.LG] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.11359 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) Submission history From: Hang Fan [view email] [v1] Tue, 11 Aug 2026 19:11:32 UTC (1,387 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled Market-Information-Aware Gated-LoRA of Foundation Models for Transferable Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting, by Hang Fan and 2 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Current browse context: cs.LG new | recent | 2026-08 Change to browse by: cs References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar Loading... Data provided by: Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate (What is Replicate?) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) IArxiv recommender toggle IArxiv Recommender (What is IArxiv?) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs. Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)