待翻译：GeoID-PINN: Identifiability-Aware Regional Epidemic Inference with Geographic Coupling

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--> COVID-19 e-print Important: e-prints posted on arXiv are not peer-reviewed by arXiv; they should not be relied upon without context to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information without consulting multiple experts in the field. [Submitted on 28 Jul 2026] Title:GeoID-PINN: Identifiability-Aware Regional Epidemic Inference with Geographic Coupling View a PDF of the paper titled GeoID-PINN: Identifiability-Aware Regional Epidemic Inference with Geographic Coupling, by Weixiong Hua and Fan Bu View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:Regional surveillance data reflect local transmission, reporting, seeding, and external infection pressure, which are difficult to identify separately. We introduce GeoID-PINN, a physics-informed neural network (PINN) for susceptible-infectious-recovered-deceased (SIRD) dynamics. The model represents spatial dependence with a row-stochastic source-composition matrix whose rows assign nonnegative source weights that sum to one. We regularize this matrix toward a spatial prior constructed from distance, adjacency, commuting, or lead-lag information. In a four-region simulation with known truth, a compatible distance prior gives source-composition error 0.099. The error rises to 0.159 without regularization and 0.577 under a strongly misspecified prior, while trajectory fit and transmission-scale estimates remain similar. Accurate trajectories therefore do not guarantee recovery of the regional dependence structure. We also evaluate GeoID-PINN retrospectively using COVID-19 data from 64 Louisiana counties. Relative to an autoregressive negative-binomial baseline, Forecast-Trained Geo-PINN reduces mean squared error (MSE) from 32,957 to 11,468 and mean absolute error (MAE) from 70.60 to 57.73. The baseline has lower negative log likelihood (NLL), 5.158 versus 5.346, indicating better distributional fit but worse point accuracy. In a controlled 15-county comparison, county adjacency reduces MSE by 6.85 percent and MAE by 3.1 percent. Similar performance across plausible priors supports structured regularization but not unique edge recovery. These results require prior-sensitivity and observation-model checks before interpretation. Comments: 11 pages, 3 figures. Accepted at the 8th epiDAMIK ACM SIGKDD Workshop on Data-driven Decision Making for Public and Population Health (epiDAMIK @ KDD 2026) Subjects: Machine Learning (cs.LG); Applications (stat.AP); Machine Learning (stat.ML) Cite as: arXiv:2608.02633 [cs.LG] (or arXiv:2608.02633v1 [cs.LG] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.02633 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Submission history From: Weixiong Hua [view email] [v1] Tue, 28 Jul 2026 05:59:23 UTC (1,607 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled GeoID-PINN: Identifiability-Aware Regional Epidemic Inference with Geographic Coupling, by Weixiong Hua and Fan Bu View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Current browse context: cs.LG new | recent | 2026-08 Change to browse by: cs stat stat.AP stat.ML References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar Loading... Data provided by: Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate (What is Replicate?) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) IArxiv recommender toggle IArxiv Recommender (What is IArxiv?) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs. Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)