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[Submitted on 13 Sep 2026] Title:Driver Behavior Estimation at Signalized Intersections Using a Physics-Constrained Decision-Conditioned Autoregressive Transformer View a PDF of the paper titled Driver Behavior Estimation at Signalized Intersections Using a Physics-Constrained Decision-Conditioned Autoregressive Transformer, by Mohammad Khoshkdahan and 2 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:Red-light violations and harsh braking at signalized intersections are major contributors to traffic accidents. This paper analyzes and predicts human driver decision-making and longitudinal trajectory behavior during traffic light signal transitions. We collected a diverse real-world dataset comprising 449 approach runs under varying speed and distance conditions. Vehicle motion was recorded using RTK-corrected GNSS with centimeter-level accuracy, and driver heart rate and multi-level comfort ratings were monitored. Spatial and temporal calibration ensured precise alignment between vehicle state and signal timing. Statistical analysis identifies required deceleration as the dominant single predictor of the stop-go decision, and heteroscedastic Gaussian modeling of peak deceleration reveals five empirical comfort ranges derived from human stopping behavior. Based on this insight, we propose a two-stage modeling framework. Stage 1 predicts the binary maneuver decision, and Stage 2 generates the longitudinal acceleration trajectory using a decision-conditioned autoregressive Transformer with physics constraints, including target-state conditioning and jerk limits. The proposed architecture outperforms baseline methods and achieves 0.49m/s^2 acceleration MAE and 0.62m distance MAE. It also estimates the future stopping-comfort level of the human driver from a single yellow-onset snapshot. Qualitative results demonstrate realistic human-like braking behavior. The dataset and source code are publicly available. Comments: Accepted for publication at the 2026 IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC 2026) Subjects: Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Computers and Society (cs.CY); Systems and Control (eess.SY) Cite as: arXiv:2609.16058 [cs.LG] (or arXiv:2609.16058v1 [cs.LG] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.16058 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite Submission history From: Mohammad Khoshkdahan [view email] [v1] Sun, 13 Sep 2026 08:39:44 UTC (1,120 KB) Full-text links: Access Paper: View a PDF of the paper titled Driver Behavior Estimation at Signalized Intersections Using a Physics-Constrained Decision-Conditioned Autoregressive Transformer, by Mohammad Khoshkdahan and 2 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) TeX Source view license Current browse context: cs.LG new | recent | 2026-09 Change to browse by: cs cs.AI cs.CY cs.SY eess eess.SY References & Citations NASA ADS Google Scholar Semantic Scholar Loading... Data provided by: Bibliographic Tools Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer Toggle Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers Toggle Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps Toggle Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite.ai Toggle scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data, Media Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv Toggle alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) Links to Code Toggle CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub Toggle DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) GotitPub Toggle Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Huggingface Toggle Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast Toggle ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Demos Replicate Toggle Replicate (What is Replicate?) Spaces Toggle Hugging Face Spaces (What is Spaces?) Spaces Toggle TXYZ.AI (What is TXYZ.AI?) Related Papers Recommenders and Search Tools Link to Influence Flower Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) Core recommender toggle CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) IArxiv recommender toggle IArxiv Recommender (What is IArxiv?) Author Venue Institution Topic About arXivLabs arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs. Which authors of this paper are endorsers? | Disable MathJax (What is MathJax?)